BZ Asia 22-Mar Asia BZ sentiment was weak in spite of front month tightness caused by huge supply disruption in Japan. (P&C) It seems JX secured 12-15kt and Asahi 9-12kt in Apr. Actually, there is no optimism for supply recovery even in May-Jun, and such situation would last for a while unless SM gives up keeping current operation. Shell declared F/M related to their Spr NCC down occurred on 18/Mar and Ellba SM (550kta) may have to shut down soon. However, impact on BZ balance would be max 10kt as long as start-up is within estimation range (1-2weeks). Due to AMSB T/A in Apr and EM's very thight balance, such vol could be easily absorbed physically. AMy B 1179 BIT to MBK AMy B 1180 Ty Chem to GS-Global After above deals in the morning, market got weaker in the afternoon and closed at 1165-1175 for May. It is said that GSCX holds 30-45kt length in May. Considering to physical requirement from Japan in May (appx 30kt), Keeping physical short at May FK would be very risky. Chinese traders who are holding such position are willing to pay USD10/MT to roll position to Jun. The key to improve sentimen is resumption of US CU from T/A in May-Jun. When people starts to seriously think about sourcing in May-Jun in US, situation may change. Anyhow, CU/PH is extremely tight due to lots of T/As and stable demand.